How Australian Migration Is Changing in 2025: Impacts on Jobs and Housing

Australian migration has long been associated with headlines about “record arrivals”, rising housing pressure and stretched infrastructure. But the latest ABS data show a clear shift: while migration remains high by historical standards, it is now falling from its recent peak. The ABS reports a net gain of 446,000 people in the year ending 30 June 2024, down from 536,000 in the previous year.

This decline matters because the scale and speed of Australian migration directly influence the labour market, housing demand and the country’s long-term economic planning.

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Quick Snapshot: Migration by the Numbers

• Net overseas migration (NOM): 536,000 in 2022-23 → 446,000 in 2023-24 (a drop of roughly 17 %).
• Largest drop driver: Decrease in arrivals (especially temporary visa holders) and an increase in departures.
• Key takeaway: Migration remains well above pre-pandemic averages, but the trend is moving downward.

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Why Australian Migration Is Easing

The decline in net overseas migration does not indicate that Australia is no longer a destination of choice. Rather, several intersecting factors are combining to slow the surge:

Visa & policy changes
The government has tightened access to certain temporary visas and increased scrutiny on visa renewals — directly affecting migration flows.

Cost-of-living pressures
High housing, transport and living costs—particularly in major cities—are making settlement more challenging for new arrivals, which may dampen migration momentum.

Global competition for talent
Australia is facing growing competition from other countries with attractive migration pathways, meaning the pool of skilled migrants has more options.

Together, these factors suggest a transition from “rapid growth” to “moderated growth”—a change that has implications for jobs and housing.

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Impact on the Job Market

Labour supply dynamics

Even though Australian migration remains elevated, a decline from the peak means the labour supply is adjusting. Industries like aged care, construction, hospitality still report significant workforce gaps—even with high migration. With fewer new arrivals to fill roles, labour shortages persist and may become more structural.

Wage pressure & productivity

With fewer fresh entrants to the labour force, competition for workers may push wages higher in some sectors. While this can benefit existing workers, it also raises productivity and inflation questions: Can businesses maintain output with a smaller influx of workers?

Recruitment, retention & training shifts

Businesses are responding by investing more in training, retention and automation rather than relying solely on migrant labour. The slower migration pace is forcing many employers to reassess how they attract and retain talent.

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Housing Market: Pressure Points and Potential Relief

Rental & housing demand easing

Australian migration has been a major driver of rental demand. With net migration easing, we’re starting to see signs of relaxing pressure in some urban rental markets. For example, the ABS data show the drop in arrivals significantly contributed to the slower growth in overall population gain.

Regional movement remains strong

While major cities might see some easing demand, regional areas continue to attract residents—both domestic and international—with lower costs and lifestyle incentives. This helps offset trends in high-growth capital city suburbs.

Planning and supply alignment

One of the opportunities presented by a slower migration rate is the ability for housing supply, infrastructure and planning systems to align better with new population flows. With demand growth decelerating, there’s a chance for more sustainable outcomes—if housing construction, zoning reforms and infrastructure investment keep pace.

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Broader Economic Implications

Reduced Australian migration flows also affect other sectors:

• Education: Institutions reliant on international students face revenue risks if visa numbers or student arrivals continue to decline.
• Services & consumption: Slower population growth may reduce demand for some services and consumption in the short term.
• Innovation & talent: Fewer incoming skilled migrants may impact sectors like tech, research and development which benefit from global talent.

That said, many economists argue that moderate migration (rather than a large sudden influx) is more conducive to sustainable economic growth because it gives infrastructure, housing and social systems time to adapt.

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The Growing Influence of AI on Australia’s Future Migration Needs

AI is also expected to influence Australia’s future migration needs by reshaping the types of skills required across the workforce. A national study by Mandala Partners estimates that around 7.2 million Australian workers will see their roles either augmented or disrupted by generative AI, with routine clerical jobs facing the highest automation risk. At the same time, demand for AI-aligned skills—such as data, cybersecurity and advanced technical roles—and essential human-centred jobs in aged care and health will continue to grow. This means AI is unlikely to reduce migration overall but will shift Australia toward a more targeted, skills-focused intake aligned with emerging technologies and workforce shortages.

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Balancing Narrative and Reality

Public discourse often swings between extremes—whether “too many migrants” or “too few”. The revised data invite a more nuanced view: migration is still high compared to historic levels but has started to ease.

This presents both opportunities (e.g., less pressure on rents) and risks (e.g., talent shortages). The more relevant question moving forward is not how many but what type of migration Australia needs—skills, regional spread, housing-ready settlement—not just headline numbers.

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Conclusion: A Strategic Moment for Australia’s Future

The slowdown in Australian migration marks a strategic moment rather than simply a demographic event. The country now has the opportunity to fine-tune how migration contributes to jobs, housing supply and economic growth.

A slower intake can provide relief to housing markets and infrastructure, but it also amplifies the need for smart policy: boosting workforce participation, investing in training, aligning housing supply and planning for regional growth.

If Australia seizes this opportunity, 2025 could be the beginning of a more sustainable, balanced migration era—one where quality, readiness and regional impact matter as much as quantity.

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FAQs

Is Australian migration really dropping?
Yes. The ABS reported net overseas migration of 446,000 in 2023-24, down from 536,000 the previous year—marking the first annual fall since post-COVID border reopening.

Will this slowdown in Australian migration ease the housing crisis?
It may ease some demand pressure, particularly in rentals and major cities, but pricing and affordability depend on housing supply, land-use reform and infrastructure investment—not just migration rates.

How will jobs be affected by fewer migrants?
Some industries may face tighter labour supply and rising wage pressure. Employers are increasingly turning to training, recruitment reforms and automation to mitigate reliance on migrant labour.

Will AI affect Australia’s future migration needs?
Yes. AI is expected to shift the types of skills Australia prioritises, with higher demand for technology, cybersecurity and advanced technical roles, while essential human-focused sectors like aged care and health will still rely on migration